A FULL RECOVERY?
CLOSE, BUT NOT QUITE.

Data-Driven Report for the first six months of 2015

Has the real estate market in Jackson Hole fully recovered from the recession? The simple answer is no, but a full analysis suggests the market is approaching 2007 peaks. Recent spikes in overall number of sales (up 21% from 2014) and overall average and median sale prices (up 32% and 22% respectively) could result in a declaration of recovery. And yet, a recent study of 108 paired sales—properties that sold between 2006-07 and again in 2014-15—gave us a better understanding of the overall market as well as the types of properties and areas that have gone beyond recovery to break new records.

A paired sale comparison helps determine the value of a particular feature within a property or the property itself. In this analysis, each paired sale entry was of the same property, with little to no remodeling or improvements done between the two sales. When making such comparisons, keep in mind that the Jackson Hole market reached its all-time high in late 2007. Of the 108 paired sales, 60 properties (55%) decreased in value an average of 15%. Meanwhile, 46 properties (42%) rose in value an average of 15%. Of those banner properties, 39 were compared with 2006 sales, which means only 7 (6.4%) have actually gone up from the 2007 peak. NOTE: When you compare the overall market at the end of 2007 to the end of 2006, the average sale price was up 24% and the median sale price was up 27%. The 2007 peak saw the median sale price for the overall market reach $950,000 compared to the current median of $875,000, or down 8%.

Within the last year, different types of properties have recovered at varying rates. Of the 44 paired condos sales, 28 (63%) are still down in value. Of the 18 lot sales, 13 (64%) are down in value. Of the 7 commercial sales, 4 are down. Only single-family homes have demonstrably gained value: Of the 38 home sales, 23 (61%) rose in value. Varied rates of recovery have befallen different parts of the valley: Teton Village is the only area to report a widespread increase in value, with several developments leading the charge with all-time highs. Close behind, the Town of Jackson and South Park both came close to matching 2007 peaks. If you would like an assessment of the current value of your Jackson Hole property, please contact us for a free comparative market analysis by calling 307-690-4004 or emailing david@jacksonholereport.com.

The Overall Market

When compared with the first six months of 2014, the overall market has increased in 2015 due to dwindling inventory and increased demand. The number of sales is up 21% and the overall dollar volume rose 58%.Following suit, the average and median sale prices jumped 32% and 22% respectively. The increase in the average and median sale prices reflect the increase of sales over $1 million, up 83% when compared to Q2 2014. In terms of price point, the most activity was seen between $1 and $3 million, where 33% of overall transactions occurred. Geographically, Teton Village experienced the most activity, accounting for 16% of all sales in the valley, and 27% of the total dollar volume or $129 million.

THE UPPER-END OF THE MARKET – properties priced at $2 million and above – experienced a slight decrease in sales by dipping 1%. Single-family homes claimed 34% of upper-end sales, with 54% on the Westbank. Despite the slight dip in overall sales, the number of upper-end properties under contract spiked by 116%. NOTE:There are 61 properties on the market in the $5 million-plus price range, up 5% from Q2 2014. The most expensive listing is in Spring Gulch, a property priced at $45 million spanning 580 acres with six building sites and exceptional Teton, Sleeping Indian and valley views. To learn more about the Jackson Hole luxury market, please visit JacksonHoleLuxuryReport.com

OVERALL PROPERTIES UNDER CONTRACT in Q2 2015 versus Q2 2014: The overall number of properties under contract is up only 2%. In contrast, the dollar volume jumped 44%, and the average list price spiked by 40%.While the number of single-family properties under contract decreased (down 21%), condo/townhouses under contract increased 22% due to the dearth of available inventory. Single-family homes and condo/townhouses make up 56% of the properties under contract, and 48% of the properties under contract are listed below $1 million.

OVERALL INVENTORY OF ACTIVE LISTINGS dropped by 3% and dollar volume is on par with Q2 2014. As previously mentioned in the Q1 2015 report, this equates to the lowest overall available inventory since the market peak in 2007. The segment with the least amount of available inventory is condo/townhomes, where inventory remains at its lowest level since 2007. Homes for sale under $750,000 have been the hardest hit, with only 14 currently available. Compare this to the end of 2014 when 158 homes sold for under $750,000. Based on the 2014 absorption rates in this segment, there is less than two months of available inventory. NOTE: The overall number of active listings under $1million is down 11%, while the under $500,000 segment is down 35% when compared to Q2 2014.

Outlook

We are very optimistic that the Jackson Hole market will continue to appreciate in every segment through the summer, particularly the under $1 million single-family home segment with its less-than two months of available inventory. For sellers who want to successfully sell their properties this summer, their properties must be priced correctly. Overpriced listings will not sell because the majority of today’s buyers continue to be motivated not by their emotions but by value. NOTE: Of all available inventory (homes, lots, condos/townhomes, commercial), 38% has been on the market before. Of those 180 listings, 162 (90%) have been on the market for more than a year and 68% for two-plus years. Talk to your Realtor about an effective pricing strategy and aggressive marketing plan. For sellers without representation, please know that Devon and I are here to help you. We know the market better than anyone. Lean on us for accurate, data-driven insight and advice to help you reach your real estate objectives. To receive a free no-obligation market analysis, and/or to list your property in 2015, contact us through JacksonHoleReport.com (email: david@jacksonholereport.com) or call 307-690-4004.

Jackson Hole Luxury Report

The market dynamics have changed drastically over our 20 years of publishing the Jackson Hole Report. During our tenure tracking real estate, we marveled at the growth of the high-end market and came to realize this elite segment warranted special attention. For this reason, we created the Jackson Hole Luxury Report in 2013, a limited-edition newsletter focused exclusively on high-end properties, which we define as $3 million and above. The Jackson Hole Luxury Report is printed and mailed semi-annually to the owners of the 500 most valuable properties in Jackson Hole – a group we call the Luxury 500. The general public may receive the Jackson Hole Luxury Report digitally.

The purpose of this limited-edition report is to provide high-end buyers and sellers with a clear understanding of the luxury landscape in which they find themselves. Building upon the analysis of the Jackson Hole Report, we delve deeper into the dynamics of the market above $3 million. The singular nature of luxury listings in Jackson Hole requires that each sale be examined in great detail and truly special properties must be considered incomparable. When pricing this type of property, you need a luxury data specialist to ensure success. As a courtesy to new clients, we provide a free confidential market analysis of their distinctive property, and continue to update the current value of the property for estate planning and/or trust updates.

While the Luxury Report focuses on luxury homes, condos and single-family vacant parcels, the Luxury 500 mailing list considers a wider lens inclusive of select commercial properties, large tracts of land, and ranches in Jackson Hole. We make special note of any Luxury 500 property sale.

If you would like to receive previous editions of the Luxury Report, or if you would like to know where your property ranks in the Luxury 500, please contact David or Devon Viehman at 307-690-4004 or david@jacksonholereport.com. To sign up for the digital version of the Luxury Report, visit JacksonHoleLuxuryReport.com.

RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate

As a member of the RE/MAX Global Network, RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate is a locally-owned and -managed boutique real estate sales brokerage. Our team of 36 seasoned realtors is supported by a powerful database that keeps daily track of every single real estate transaction in Jackson Hole. While the intimacy of our local firm guarantees personal service and attention, the global reach of RE/MAX is unmatched in Jackson Hole. When you combine the global presence of all other local brokerages, their collective reach does not equal half the number of worldwide offices and agents in the RE/MAX Global Network. Stateside, RE/MAX offers an equally impressive presence: Our U.S. franchises’ websites are visited by 10 times as many people as all the other local franchise or affiliate brokerage combined, which equated to more than 50 million visits in 2014.This marketing advantage is critical when selling a property; according to the National Association of Realtors, 95% of all buyers in the U.S. start their search online. Global.REMAX.com even allows potential buyers to look for properties in 30 languages, translate currencies, and find the latest international real estate news.

With nearly 90,000 agents in 89 countries, RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate and the RE/MAX Global Network connect your property to potential customers virtually anywhere. In Jackson Hole, RE/MAX Obsidian is a vital, contributing member of the community. As a participant in 1% for the Tetons, RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate donates 1% of our real estate sales commission to local sustainability initiatives.

Our decades-deep knowledge of the valley combined with the international reach of RE/MAX Global Network makes us your Local Real Estate Experts.

Whether you are pricing your property to sell in this competitive market or weighing the right time to buy, rest assured that when you are our client, you have the upper hand through access to current market statistics and our impeccable level of service and personal attention. For a free comparative market analysis, please contact us by calling 307-690-4004 or emailing david@jacksonholereport.com.

The Jackson Hole Report is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters. While other Realtors attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only (MLS historically tracks 65-70% of the market), we track every single transaction in Teton County. This data-driven report is the oldest, most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County, Wyoming. We are your “True North” of valley real estate reporting. If you would like to sign up for quarterly email updates, or need more detailed information about our local real estate market, please call 307-690-4004 or email david@jacksonholereport.com.

We hope this report has given you a snapshot of market trends. As always, we would be glad to discuss them further with you. Please contact us if you plan to list your property in 2015, would like a more detailed analysis of specific areas or back issues of the jackson Hole Report, or if you are scouting for a professional Realtor to represent you in your next real estate transaction. We look forward to working with you.

Sincerely,

David E. Viehman, Associate Broker
Devon Viehman, Associate Broker
“Wyoming Realtor of the Year 2013”
The Jackson Hole Report
RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate
Direct: 307.690-4004
Toll-free: 855-690-4004
Fax: 855-722-2023
http://www.jacksonholereport.com
david@jacksonholereport.com

* While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call Devon and David today. “We are the Experts”.

* All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.

* All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2015 compared to sales in 2014.

* Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale.

* Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.

* In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), minus Alta, WY.

* The term “Market Value” means the value of property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.

© Copyright 1995 – 2015 by David E. Viehman and Devon Viehman. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David E. Viehman.