An Inventory of Jackson Hole: South Jackson

Data-Driven Report for the first six months of 2016
Just how finite is real estate in Jackson Hole? This is the question we have set out to answer in our 2016 reports. Knowing that 97% of Teton County will never be developed (as public or conserved lands), we want to see how much room remains for deeded future development. We began the year by looking at the Town of Jackson and then the Westbank, reported in the Q1 2016 quarterly report. Now, we have tallied the current built inventory and vacant parcels in “South Jackson,” which we define as all real estate south of the Gros Ventre River (excluding the Town of Jackson) to the Teton County line.

Our process requires tracking the MLS on a daily basis—recording every single deed documented in Teton County—and then filling in the gaps through the Teton County Geographic Information System. According to our research, the South Jackson development potential for additional single-family deeded housing is 18%, which means 523 more single-family homes could be built in South Jackson. NOTE: This does not include future affordable housing or the potential transfer of development credits from other parts of the valley.

While our continued research proves our hypothesis—that the finite amount of land in South Jackson translates into minor development potential—the startling revelation of our study relates to the percentage of non-developable lands. Currently, 47% of South Jackson is protected by conservation easements and/or common parcels associated with large subdivisions.

To review all our comprehensive calculations for South Jackson click here. Our full online assessment includes a complete breakdown of single-family homes, condo/townhouses, vacant residential commercial lots, number of accessory residential units, and potential future development. Convinced by this continued foray into the numbers that this is an important exercise, we will finish our valley assessment this fall by reporting on North of Town. To subscribe to our Jackson Hole Report, please email us at david@jacksonholereport.com or click here.

The Overall Market

When compared with the first six months of 2015, the overall market has decreased in 2016 due to dwindling well-priced inventory under $1 million. The number of sales is down 16% and the overall dollar volume dropped 14%. Overall sales were dragged down by the slump in sales under $1 million, down 21% when compared to Q2 2015. Despite dwindling sales, prices didn’t budge much. The average sale price increased by 3%, but the median sale price did not change. In terms of price point, the most activity was seen under $1 million, a segment accountable for 53% of overall transactions. Geographically, the Town of Jackson experienced the most activity, accounting for 35% of all sales in the valley and 23% of the total dollar volume ($95 million).

The upper-end of the market—properties priced at $2 million and above—experienced far fewer sales (down 23%). Single-family homes claimed 50% of upper-end sales, with 67% on the Westbank. Despite the overall drop, the number of upper-end properties under contract increased by 42%. NOTE: There are 68 properties on the market in the $5 million-plus price range, up 11% from Q2 2015. The most expensive listing is just south of Wilson, a property priced at $53 million spanning 264 acres with a 7,715 sf. main house, a guesthouse, and expansive Fish Creek and Snake River frontages (and some existing conservation easements).

The overall number of properties under contract rose 15%, and yet, the average list price dropped by 12%. While the number of single-family homes under contract increased slightly (up 3%), condo/townhouses under contract increased 54% due mainly to new inventory in Shooting Star. Single-family homes and condo/townhouses make up 79% of the properties under contract, and 44% of the properties under contract are listed below $1 million.

Overall inventory of active listings dropped by 7% with the dollar volume following suit (down 5%) when compared to Q2 2015. This equates to the lowest overall available inventory since the market peak in 2007 and the third lowest in 25 years. The segment with the least amount of available inventory is condo/townhomes, where inventory remains at its lowest level since 2007. Homes for sale under $750,000 have been the hardest hit, with only 5 currently available, a scarcity made all the more dire when compared to the end of 2014 when 158 homes sold for under $750,000. Based on 2016 mid-year absorption rates in this segment, there is less than two months of available inventory.

Jackson Hole Luxury Report

The market dynamics have changed drastically over the course of our 21 years of publishing the Jackson Hole Report. During our tenure tracking real estate, we marveled at the growth of the high-end market and came to realize this elite segment warranted special attention.  For this reason, we created the Jackson Hole Luxury Report in 2013, a limited-edition newsletter focused exclusively on high-end properties, which we define as $3 million and above.  The Jackson Hole Luxury Report is printed and mailed semi-annually to all owners of properties worth $3+ million in Jackson Hole.  The general public may receive the Jackson Hole Luxury Report digitally.

The purpose of this limited-edition report is to provide high-end buyers and sellers with a clear understanding of the luxury landscape in which they find themselves.  Building upon the analysis of the Jackson Hole Report, we delve deeper into the dynamics of the market above $3 million.  The singular nature of luxury listings in Jackson Hole requires that each sale be examined in great detail and truly special properties must be considered incomparable.  When pricing this type of property, you need a luxury data specialist to ensure success.  As a courtesy to new clients, we provide a free confidential market analysis of their distinctive property, and continue to update the current value of the property for estate planning and/or trust updates.

While the Luxury Report focuses on luxury homes, condos and single-family vacant parcels, the Luxury 500 list considers a wider lens inclusive of select commercial properties, large tracts of land, and ranches in Jackson Hole.  We make special note of any Luxury 500 property sale, which currently average over $5 million in value. 

If you would like to receive previous editions of the Luxury Report, or if you would like to know if your property ranks in the Luxury 500, please contact us at 307-690-4004 or david@jacksonholereport.com. To sign up for the digital version of the Luxury Report, click here.

RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate

As a member of the RE/MAX Global Network, RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate is a locally-owned and -managed boutique real estate sales brokerage.  Our team of 40 seasoned realtors is supported by a powerful database that keeps daily track of every single real estate transaction in Jackson Hole.  While the intimacy of our local firm guarantees personal service and attention, the global reach of RE/MAX is unmatched in Jackson Hole.  When you combine the global presence of all other local brokerages, their collective reach does not equal half the number of worldwide offices and agents in the RE/MAX Global Network.  Stateside, RE/MAX offers an equally impressive presence:  Our U.S. franchises’ websites are visited by 10 times as many people as all the other local franchise or affiliate brokerage combined, which equated to more than 50 million visits in 2015.  This marketing advantage is critical when selling a property; according to the National Association of Realtors, 95% of all buyers in the U.S. start their search online.  Global.REMAX.com even allows potential buyers to look for properties in 30 languages, translate currencies, and find the latest international real estate news. 

With nearly 90,000 agents in 89 countries, RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate and the RE/MAX Global Network connect your property to potential customers virtually anywhere.  In Jackson Hole, RE/MAX Obsidian is a vital, contributing member of the community.  As a participant in 1% for the Tetons, RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate donates 1% of our real estate sales commission to local sustainability initiatives.

Our decades-deep knowledge of the valley combined with the international reach of RE/MAX Global Network makes us your Local Real Estate Experts.

Whether you are pricing your property to sell in this competitive market or weighing the right time to buy, rest assured that when you are our client, you have the upper hand through access to current market statistics and our impeccable level of service and personal attention.  For a free comparative market analysis, please contact us by calling 307-690-4004 or emailing david@jacksonholereport.com.

The Jackson Hole Report is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters.  While other Realtors attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only (MLS historically tracks 65-70% of the market), we track every single transaction in Teton County.  This data-driven report is the oldest, most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County, Wyoming.  We are your “True North” of valley real estate reporting.  If you would like to sign up for quarterly email updates, or need more detailed information about our local real estate market, please call 307-690-4004 or email david@jacksonholereport.com.

We hope this report has given you a snapshot of market trends.  As always, we would be glad to discuss them further with you.  Please contact us if you plan to list your property in 2016, would like a more detailed analysis of specific areas or back issues of the Jackson Hole Report, or if you are scouting for a professional Realtor to represent you in your next real estate transaction.  We look forward to working with you.

Sincerely,

David E. Viehman, Associate Broker
Devon Viehman, Associate Broker
“Wyoming Realtor of the Year 2013”
The Jackson Hole Report
RE/MAX Obsidian Real Estate
Direct: 307.690.4004
Toll-free: 855.690.4004
Fax: 855.722.2023
www.jacksonholereport.com
david@jacksonholereport.com

*While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call Devon and David today. “We are the Experts”.


*All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.

*All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2016 compared to sales in 2015.


*Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale.


*Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.


*In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), minus Alta.
*The term “Market Value” means the value of property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.

© Copyright 1995 – 2016 by David E. Viehman and Devon Viehman. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David E. Viehman.