Spring 2017 marks Jackson Hole’s lowest available inventory in well over 30 years, with only 312 listings currently available. The last time we saw levels this low was in 2006-07 when we averaged 325 listings. The key difference between 2006-07 and 2017 is the number of sales in the first quarter. In 2006 there were 208 sales. This year we only registered 109 sales, which means sales are down by 48%. So, what has changed in the last 10 years to bring down the number of sales? Three factors are to blame: 1) A lack of affordable single-family home and condo inventory; 2) a lack of local trades; and 3) investors during the Great Recession.
Affordable Inventory: In 2007, there were 116 overall sales under $500,000 in the first quarter, versus 10 in 2017. Ten years ago the median condo sale price was $427,000 versus today at $689,000, which is a 61% increase. The median home sale price in 2007 was $1,025,000 versus $1,350,000 in 2016, a 32% increase. NOTE: $1,350,000 also marks the highest median single-family home sale price in the history of Jackson Hole real estate. Today, there are zero homes listed for under $750,000, and only 10 condos listed for under $500,000.
In 2007, 126 homes, less than 10 years old, were sold on the market. In 2016, only 48 homes sold that were less than 10 years old. This sharp contrast reflects our current construction environment where most newly built homes are for second homeowners and not locals. Much higher construction cost and land values make it impossible to build a new home in the valley for under $1 million, putting the dream of owning a new home out of the reach for most locals.
Local trades: In 2007, the following was a common real estate scenario. A local family would remodel and sell their existing condo to trade up for a home with a small back yard and an attached garage. The locals selling that home would trade up to a larger residence with acreage. Then, the locals selling the larger home would trade up to a newer home with better views. This type of trade up allowed for a lot of turnover and additional inventory. Today, there is little to no “trading up,” as most owners still remember the Great Recession and are concerned about overextending themselves.
Investors: During the Great Recession, many local owners were forced to sell, or lost their property via bankruptcy. Most of those owners did not leave the valley though, and were forced to rent. As values dropped, investors swooped in purchasing these homes and condos, remodeling them, and then placing them on the rental market. Since today’s rental market is stronger than it’s ever been, these investors choose to keep their investments in the rental market, thus limiting even more inventory from returning to the buy/sell market.
Data-Driven Report for the first three months of 2017
The Jackson Hole Report is the most accurate and trusted real estate market report in Teton County, WY. We derive our statistics from a privately-maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the ones reported through MLS.
The Overall Market
Compared with the first three months of 2016, the 2017 market seems to be leveling off with the number of sales up 6%. The overall dollar volume was up by 21%, and the average sale price was up 13%. The increased dollar volume and average sale price are due partly to the Four Springs Ranch sale in January, which was listed for $53 million. In terms of price, the most activity was under $1 million, where 52% of overall transactions occurred. Geographically, the Town of Jackson experienced the most activity, which in total accounted for 35% of all sales in the valley. The Westbank came in a close second with 30% of all sales.
The upper-end of the market—properties priced at $3 million and above— registered 16 sales in the first quarter of 2017. The difference was in dollar volume, where 2017 sold 37% more than 2016, or $114 million. While it may appear the upper-end is leveling off, a quick look at properties under contract tells a different story. Currently 29 upper-end properties are under contract with an average list price of over $4.75 million. Of those, 76% are on the Westbank, with the majority in Shooting Star. While the available upper-end inventory is up 12%, the average list price is down 7%, and median list price is up 6%
There are 61 properties on the market in the $5 million+ price range, which is up 30% from Q1 2016. The most expensive listing is north of Town, a home priced at $28 million with 11,500 sq. ft. situated in the middle of 40 private acres offering 3/4 mile of trout filled spring creeks and private golf under the shadow of the Tetons.
Overall properties under contract in Q1 2017 versus Q1 2016: The overall number of properties under contract is up 4%, and the overall dollar volume is up 13%. Single-family homes and condo/townhouses make up 83% of the properties under contract, and 38% of the properties under contract are listed below $1 million.
Overall inventory of active listings is down 9%, marking the lowest level of available overall inventory in more than 30 years. The segment with the least amount of available inventory is single-family homes under $1 million, where inventory is at an all-time low (11 homes). Homes for sale under $750,000 are few and far between, with the least expensive listing at the time of publication being $849,000. Based on the 2016 absorption rates, where 113 homes sold for under $1 million, there is a little over one month of available inventory. This segment is typically more active in the summer, and the selection will surely dwindle in the coming months. The segment with the largest increase in available inventory was single-family homes above $5 million, up 59%.
Our complete 1st & 3rd quarter reports are not posted on this website, but instead are only available by email. To receive the rest of this first quarter report, and sign up for all four quarterly reports via email please sign up here.
*While other local Real Estate Brokerages attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only Realtors who track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, call us today. We are the Experts.
*All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed. *All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2017 compared to sales in 2016. *Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale. *Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales. *The word “Overall” in this newsletter refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial and ranch). Alta, Wyoming is not included in this report. *The term “Market Value” means; the value of a property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.