NEWLY BUILT HOMES ON THE RISE

While the number of new single-family homes built today is clearly on the rise, the numbers are nowhere close to the all-time high in 1990. In 2018, we tracked 107 new home builds, up 78% when compared to 2017. Looking back to 1990, where 217 homes were built, we are sitting at about half the number of new builds. After the peak of 1990, the numbers consistently fell to a low point of 34 new builds in 2011. Since then we have seen an average of 61 new builds per year until 2018.

So what’s going on? With the lack of available single-family home inventory over the last six years, and the new influx of general and sub-contractors, we are again seeing speculation in the single-family market. While 2018 only showed eight new spec home purchases, there are currently 15 new spec homes on the market, and four more currently under contract.

Will we ever return to the level of new home builds like 1990? Probably not. In 1990, the average sale price for a single-family home was $295,000, and the median sale price was $172,000. In 2018, the average sale price was $2.7 million and the median was $1.8 million. Two major factors contribute to the low probability: 1) Raw land prices back then averaged $150,000 per lot versus $1.8 million today, and 2) Building cost (labor and materials) in 1990 averaged $110 per sq. ft. versus a minimum of $400 per sq. ft. today.

NOTE: In 2018, the average sale price of a “new” home was $3.5 million and the median sale price was $2.4 million.

Data-Driven Report for 2019

The Jackson Hole Report is the oldest, most accurate and comprehensive real estate market report in Teton County, WY. We derive our statistics from a privately maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the transactions reported through MLS.

All of our valley-wide analyses have been updated as of the end of 2018, and are available online at jacksonholerealestatereport.com/overall-deeded-parcels. To subscribe to our Jackson Hole Report, please email us at david@jacksonholereport.com or visit our website at jacksonholerealestatereport.com/contact.

The Overall Market

When compared to the first six months of 2018, the overall market has slowed with 8% less sales. In contrast, the average and median sale prices are up 6% and 15% respectively. The only segment where the number of sales increased was condos/townhomes, up 14% when compared to Q2 2018. Don’t read too much into the slow down of sales, as overall average and median list prices are breaking records. In terms of price point, for the SECOND TIME IN A ROW the $1+ million segment is accountable for more than 50% of overall transactions.

Geographically, the Town of Jackson experienced the most activity (136 sales), accounting for 46% of all sales in the valley and 24% of the total dollar volume ($134 million).

The luxury market—properties priced at $3 million and above—experienced a slow down with 50 sales (down 17%). Do not read too much into this slow down either, as 50 sales is the second highest number of sales ever in the first six months. Single-family homes claimed 60% of luxury sales (30 transactions), with 43% on the Westbank. The hottest segment overall is between $3 and $5 million where 31 sales closed (62%). Luxury listings under contract are also slowing with 18 sales pending (down 58%).

NOTE: There are 125 properties on the market in the $3+ million price range, up 33% from Q2 2018.

The most expensive listing is north of Jackson, an 8,000 sq. ft. home and 3,600 sq. ft. guesthouse spanning 278 acres priced at $80 million. The property offers more than 1⁄2 mile of Snake River frontage and three spring creeks. To learn more about the Jackson Hole luxury market, please visit JacksonHoleLuxuryReport.com.

The overall number of properties under contract is experiencing a slow- down with 82 properties currently in negotiations (down 23%). The dollar volume and average list price followed suit—down 37% and 18% respectively.

NOTE: While the number of properties under negotiations is down, 82 actually falls in range with a six-year average. All segments experienced a decrease in the number of properties under contract except for single-family vacant land, where the number is up 38%. Single-family homes and condos/townhomes make up 71% of the properties under contract. 41% of the properties under contract are listed below $1 million.
Overall inventory of active listings experienced a reversal of an eight-year decline with 342 (up 10%), and the dollar volume is up 28% to $1.32 million, when compared to Q2 2018. The segment with the least amount of available inventory is condos/townhomes, where inventory remains at its lowest level since 2009. Homes for sale under $1 million continue to be scarce, with only 14 currently available, made all the more problematic when com- pared to July 1st of 2011 when 104 homes sold for under $1 million.

NOTE
: Q2 2019 marks an all-time low of available homes for sale under $1 million, with
only 14 to choose from.

There are currently 11,850 free-market deeds in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (3,651); Town of Jackson (3,869); North of the Gros Ventre River (1,426); South of Gros Ventre River to County Line (2,904)—all free-market (not deed restricted or timeshare).

There are 1,731 deeds worth at least $3+ million (luxury properties) throughout the valley. Currently, the Westbank is home to almost half (849) of these luxury properties.

Due to the Great Recession, overall inventory peaked in 2010 at 842 available properties. We have since experienced an annual decline in inventory until this year, where overall inventory is up 10% to 342 listings.

*While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call Devon and David today. “We are the Experts”.

*All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.

*All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2019 compared to sales in 2018.

*Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale.

*Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.

*In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), minus Alta, WY.

*The term “Market Value” means the value of property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.

© Copyright 1995 – 2019 by David E. Viehman and Devon Viehman. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David E. Viehman.