JACKSON HOLE REAL ESTATE REPORT
The Jackson Hole Report is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters. While other Realtors attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only (MLS historically tracks 65-70% of the market), we track every single transaction in Teton County. This data-driven report is the oldest, most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County, Wyoming.
The overall number of sales is down 46%, and the dollar volume down 22%. This dramatic decrease comes from a multitude of issues not necessarily locally driven. Home mortgage interest rates nearly doubled, inflation hit a 40-year high in June, stocks suffered their worst first half of the year since 1970, and cryptocurrency took a big hit. Locally, the lack of affordable homes and condo/ townhomes under $1 million has cut the number of Buyers by more than 50%. For example, just 12 months ago, the first six months of 2021 registered 112 sales under $1 million. In 2022 we had a total of 18 sales under $1 million in the first six months. Step back to 2013 and there were 220 sales under $1 million by the end of June. NOTE: While the number of sales is within 10% of pre-pandemic levels, the dollar volume is double what we were seeing pre-pandemic with just over $1 billion in the first half of 2022.
Even with a 46% decrease in sales the average and median sale prices are still breaking records across the board. The average and median sale price for a single-family home increased 13% and 9%, respectively; the average and median sale price for a single-family vacant lot increased 9% and 27%, respectively; and the average and median sale price for a condo/townhome increased 70% and 66%, respectively.
Overall properties under contract are down 24%, yet the average list price is breaking another record at $4.23 million. NOTE: There were 76 overall properties under contract at the end of Q1 2022, yet only 58 today. This slowdown could reflect the multitude of issues mentioned above and/or the fact that the airport was closed this spring.
Available inventory at the end of June 2020 registered 323 overall listings, and yet today, we only have 167. NOTE: Just three months ago, at the end of Q1 2022, there were only 65 active listings overall. While the increase in listings is expected this time of year, it’s still half of the normal available inventory for the end of June. Regardless, it’s good news for Buyers as there is almost three times as much to choose from just three months ago.
While we normally do not focus on commercial activity in this newsletter—as the activity is usually too small—we feel it necessary to bring to our readers’ attention the fact that 31% of the dollar volume to date in 2022 was commercially driven. This was mainly due to four motel/hotels selling. Three were in the Town of Jackson and one was in Spring Creek Resort. The overall commercial dollar volume was $307 million, up 126% from the first six months of 2021.
Looking ahead, we are seeing a softening of demand with inflation, rising interest rates, and lack of inventory in the lower price ranges. However, the softening is taking us from a frenzied market to one that is less so. Inventory is increasing and prices will start to moderate into a slower growth curve. While inventory levels are still at historic lows, without more Buyers in the market, some sellers will have to lower their expectations if they want to close in 2022
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CLOSINGS
Down 66%
OVERALL DOLLAR VOLUME
22% Decrease
ACTIVE LISTINGS VALLEY WIDE
All Home, Lot, Condo, Multi-Family & Commercial
Overall inventory of active listings increased 15%, when compared to Q2 2021, marking the second lowest number of overall active listings in over 50 years at mid-year. Single family homes increased only 8%, vacant residential lots went up 12%, and condo/ townhomes went up the most at 70%. Homes for sale under $1 million are non-existent, with the least expensive home currently priced at $1.695 million. NOTE: On July 1, 2011, there were 104 homes listed for under $1 million with an average list price of $2.795 million versus today’s average list price of $6.08 million.
MID YEAR 2022
Demand for single-family homes softens (down 45%), with 96 sales so far in 2022. In contrast, the average and median sale prices are up 13% and 9%, respectively. Both setting records for mid-year, the average sale price was $4.69 million, and the median sale price was $3 million. The decrease in overall home sales can be directly linked to the lack of affordable inventory as the least expensive home currently on the market is $1.695 million. NOTE: In the first six months of 2022, 45 homes (47%) sold for between $1 and $3 million. Also noteworthy is only two homes sold in this timeframe for under $1 million. Compare that to 2018 when 42 homes sold for under $1 million in the first six months.
The number of single family homes under contract has slowed (down 34%), and the dollar volume is down 46% to $65 million. Following suit, the average and median list prices decreased 18% and 22%, respectively, when compared to Q2 2021. With the dearth of available inventory under $2 million, the $1 to $3 million segment is now the most active in the valley; 44% of the homes currently under contract fall into this segment.
The luxury, single-family home market ($5+ million) number of sales and dollar volume are both down 34%. Of the 33 sales, 7 were priced at over $10 million, with three of those closing for over $15 million. NOTE: The number of luxury listings is up 9%.
The inventory of listed homes increased 8% to 82 listings, with none listed for less than $1.5 million. Following suit, the median list price is again record breaking , up 1% to $4.5 million. This is due in part to 43% of the current listings being considered Luxury (priced at over $5 million).
Current available inventory breaks down as follows: 8 homes between $1 and $2 million (down 33%); 13 homes between $2 and $3 million (no change); 26 homes between $3 and $5 million (up 53%); 24 between $5 and $10 million (up 14%); and 11 over $10 million (down 8%).
Currently, the least expensive single-family home, located in the Hoback Junction area, is listed for $1.65 million. The one-acre parcel features a 1,488 sq. ft., three-bedroom, two-bath home, built in 1972.
The most expensive home, located south of Wilson, is listed for $27.65 million. The main home, built in 1977, has 2,664 sq. ft. with two bedrooms and two baths. An adjoining parcel is included in the list price totaling 75 acres. It includes Trail Creek on the western portion and superb, long-distance views.
MID YEAR 2022
Condo/townhome sales decreased in the first six months of 2022 with 66 sales (down 51%). In contrast, the average and median sale prices increased 70% and 66%, respectively, when compared to 2021. NOTE: the average and median sale prices are both record-breaking for mid-year sales.
The number of sales under $1 million is down 84% (12), whereas the number of sales over $3 million is up 113%. The hot spots were the Town of Jackson and Teton Village with 39 and 15 sales, respectively.
The number of condos/townhomes under contract has decreased with 21 properties currently in negotiations (down 37%), and the dollar volume down 8%. In contrast, the average list price of $2.83 million is up 45% and the median list price of $2.575 million is up 98%—both record-breaking. The increase in the average list price reflects a decrease in listings under contract for under $2 million (down 53%).
Available inventory of condos/townhomes has seen a generous increase of 70% (39 listings). NOTE: In 2009 the market peaked with 214 available listings, and from 2015 to 2020 the average number of listings mid-year was 75. The median list price hit an all-time high at $2.1 million (up 45%), due to the lack of listings under $1 million (only six). Based on mid-year results, current inventory offers only four months of condo/townhome stock. NOTE: Of the current available inventory, 15% is listed for less than $1 million, with the least expensive at $605,000—a 410 sq. ft. studio in Teton Village.
MID YEAR 2022
Single-family vacant lot sales decreased in the first six months of 2022 with 30 sales (down 64%) . Following suit, the dollar volume was down 61% when compared to mid-year 2021. In contrast, the average and median sale prices are up 9% and 27%, respectively—both record-breaking. NOTE: The Luxury Market ($5+ million) had 9 sales over $5 million (down 31%), and one over $10 million.
Single-family vacant lots under contract: Eleven properties are currently in negotiations (down 8%), with the least expensive being $998,000. Nine are listed for between $1 and $2 million.
Available inventory of listed lots increased by 12% and dollar volume is up 87% from Q2 2021. Following suit, the average and median sale prices increased 62% ($6.27 million) and 57% ($2.825 million), respectively—both record-breaking, when compared to 2021. The increase in the average and median list prices reflect the lack of inventory under $1 million (0). NOTE: Demand is slowing, so we do not expect appreciation to continue in 2022. Based on mid-year results, there are currently only 8 months of available inventory.
Current available inventory breaks down as follows: 0 lots under $1 million; 12 lots between $1 and $2 million; 9 lots between $2 and $3 million; 7 lots between $3 and $5 million; 5 lots between $5 and $10 million; and 5 lots over $10 million.
The Jackson Hole Report is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters.
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