2023 Third Quarter

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2023 – Is the Local Real Estate Market Cooling?

The answer is a definitive “YES,” but the situation is nuanced. To begin with, comparing the first nine months of 2023 to the same period in 2022 reveals a 22% decline in overall sales, a 29% drop in dollar volume, and a 24% increase in available inventory. However, this isn’t a straightforward case of supply versus demand. While inventory has increased by 66% since the end of the COVID era, it’s important to note that we are still at historically low levels. For perspective, between 2010 and 2019, the average number of active listings at the end of Q3 was 517, compared to the current 259—a 50% decrease.

So, what’s driving this trend?

The “COVID Buying Frenzy” caused prices to skyrocket so rapidly that it pushed at least 30% of prospective buyers out of our market in 2020-21. For instance, in 2019, the median sale price for a single-family home in the Town of Jackson was $1.288 million, whereas today it stands at $2.7 million, a staggering 110% increase for the first nine months of 2023. It’s worth noting that this surge in values wasn’t unique to our locality; many communities across the country experienced similar rapid price increases.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation has had a significant impact. Conventional interest rates have doubled over the past three years, making it increasingly difficult for both local residents and potential second homeowners to qualify for mortgages or justify property purchases. Another noteworthy statistic: 69% of all real estate transactions in 2023 have been conducted in cash.

The higher interest rates not only priced potential local buyers out of the market but also deterred many locals who were contemplating selling their homes. For those without substantial equity built up, the prospect of financing their next purchase at double the interest rate of their current home loan is daunting, further exacerbating the inventory shortage.

Nevertheless, there are still bright spots in our market. Homes priced under $1 million and condominiums/townhomes under $500,000 continue to be in high demand. Additionally, there are properties scattered throughout the valley that are hitting the market at or below current market values and selling within a few weeks

Our complete 1st & 3rd quarter reports are not posted on this website, but instead are only available by email. To receive the rest of this first quarter report, and sign up for all four quarterly reports via email.

  • While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call David, Devon and Luke today. “We are the Experts”.
  • All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.
    All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2023 compared to sales in 2022.
  • Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale.
  • Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.
  • In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), minus Alta, WY.
  • The term “Market Value” means the value of property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.

© Copyright 1995 – 2023 by David E. Viehman and Devon Viehman. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David E. Viehman.

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© Copyright Engel & Völkers 2024. All rights reserved. Each brokerage independently owned and operated. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. If your property is currently represented by a real estate broker, this is not an attempt to solicit your listing. Engel & Völkers and its independent License Partners are Equal Opportunity Employers and fully support the principles of the Fair Housing Act.