JACKSON HOLE REAL ESTATE REPORT
The Jackson Hole Report is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters. While other Realtors attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only (MLS historically tracks 65-70% of the market), we track every single transaction in Teton County. This data-driven report is the oldest, most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County, Wyoming.
While the overall number of sales is down 32%, inventory levels across the board are on the rise. Overall inventory is up 34% with single-family home inventory up 13%, townhome/condo inventory up 44%, and residential vacant lot inventory up 76%. Normally, rising inventory puts pressure on Sellers to lower their prices, but not in 2023. The average and median sale prices for homes, townhome/condos, and residential vacant lots are all up and all breaking records for the end of Q2. While 22% of the current listings on the market have reduced their list prices since inception, Buyers are still willing to pay more than last year due to the lack of inventory.
It’s important to point out that the 154 overall sales to date is the third lowest number of sales in 30 years. Besides the lack of inventory, this dramatic decrease also comes from issues not necessarily locally driven. Home mortgage interest rates nearly doubled since COVID, and inflation is still high. Locally, the lack of affordable homes and condo/townhomes under $1 million has cut the number of Buyers by more than 80%. For example, just two years ago, the first six months of 2021 registered 112 sales under $1 million. By contrast, in 2023, we had a total of 18 sales under $1 million in the first six months. Step back to 2013, and there were 220 sales under $1 million in the first six months. NOTE: With interest rates doubling, 71% of all sales in 2023 have been cash. Interest rates have also put a damper on remodeling projects as Buyers are using their extra cash to purchase.
Available inventory at the end of June 2020 registered 323 overall listings, and today, we only have 224. NOTE: Just three months ago, at the end of Q1 2023, there were only 132 active listings overall. That’s a 70% increase in just three months. While the increase in listings is expected this time of year, it’s still only 60% of the normal available inventory for the end of June. Regardless, it’s good news for Buyers when inventory is on the rise.
Looking ahead, we continue to see a softening of demand with inflation, rising interest rates, and lack of inventory in the lower price ranges. However, we are starting to see more active Buyers in the valley. Inventory is increasing and prices have started to moderate into a slower growth curve. While inventory levels are still at historic lows, without more Buyers in the market, some Sellers will have to lower their expectations if they want to close in 2023.
The Jackson Hole Report is the most widely distributed and anticipated quarterly newsletter in Jackson Hole. To guarantee the most successful outcome in your next real estate transaction, call us today.
DATA-DRIVEN REPORT FOR THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2023
The Jackson Hole Report is the oldest, most accurate, and comprehensive real estate market report in Teton County, Wyoming. We derive our statistics from a privately maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the transactions reported through MLS. NOTE: Only 62% of sale prices valley-wide in 2023 were reported to MLS.
Were you shocked when you received your 2023 property tax estimate? If you would like an assessment of the current value of your Jackson Hole property, please contact us for a free comparative market analysis by calling 307-690-4004 or emailing david@jhreport.com.
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CLOSINGS
32% Decrease
OVERALL DOLLAR VOLUME
34% Decrease
ACTIVE LISTINGS VALLEY WIDE
All Home, Lot, Condo, Multi-Family & Commercial
The Luxury Market—properties priced at $5 million and above—registered 33 sales (down 44%). The hottest segment overall was between $5 and $10 million where 19 sales closed. Single-family homes claimed 73% of luxury sales (24 transactions) with 33% of those on the Westbank. Luxury listings under contract are down 30% with only seven sales pending. NOTE: There are 74 properties on the market in the $5+ million price range, up 48% from Q2 2022. The most expensive overall listing is a 9,696 sq. ft. log home on a 4.53-acre parcel across from Teton Village. With Lake Creek running through the property and 360-degree views, it’s listed for $40 million. To learn more about the Jackson Hole Luxury Market, please visit JacksonHoleLuxuryReport.com.
Overall real estate currently under contract has declined with 42 properties currently in negotiations (down 28%). Following suit, the average list price is down 17% to $3.5 million. All segments experienced a decrease in the number of properties under contract with the most being the condo/townhomes segment which was down 52%. The decrease in this segment is directly related to the lack of inventory under $750,000 with only four townhome/condos currently listed in that range.
Overall inventory of active listings increased 34% when compared to Q2 2022, marking the third lowest number of overall active listings in over 50 years at mid-year. Single-family homes increased 13%, condo/townhomes went up 44%, and vacant residential lots went up the most at 76%. Homes for sale under $1 million are non-existent. The least expensive home is currently priced at $1.13 million. NOTE: On July 1, 2011, there were 104 homes listed for under $1 million with an average list price of $2.795 million versus today’s average list price of $5.26 million.
• There are currently 12,356 free-market deeds (not deed-restricted or timeshare) in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (3,717); Town of Jackson (4,130); North of the Gros Ventre River (1,443); and South of the Gros Ventre River to the County Line (3,066).
• Reflecting a 30% increase since pre-COVID, there are 2,381 deeds worth at least $5 million (luxury properties) throughout the valley, and the Westbank is home to almost half with 1,183 deeds.
• Due to the Great Recession, overall inventory peaked in 2010 at 842 available properties. We have experienced a continued decline in inventory since then with overall available properties showing 224 listings. In 2020, prior to COVID, overall active listings hovered around 375.
MID-YEAR 2023
Demand for single-family homes decreased 22% with 75 sales so far in 2023. In contrast, the average and median sale prices are up 20% and 12%, respectively. Both setting records for mid-year, the average sale price was $5.62 million, and the median sale price was $3.345 million. The decrease in overall home sales can be directly linked to the lack of affordable inventory as the least expensive home currently on the market is $1.13 million. NOTE: In the first six months of 2023, 24 homes (32%) sold for over $5 million. Also noteworthy is NO homes sold in this timeframe for under $1 million. Compare that to 2018 when 42 homes sold for under $1 million in the first six months.
The number of sales in the luxury, single-family home market ($5+ million) was down 25%. Of the 24 sales, 11 were priced at over $10 million with three of those closing for over $20 million. NOTE: The number of luxury listings is up 37%.
The number of single-family homes under contract is up 35%, and the dollar volume is up 18% to $77 million. In contrast, the average and median list prices decreased 13% and 11%, respectively, when compared to Q2 2022. With the dearth of available inventory under $2 million, the $2 to $4 million segment is now the most active in the valley; 39% of the homes currently under contract fall into this segment.
The inventory of listed homes increased 13% to 93 listings with none listed for less than $1.13 million. Following suit, the average and median list prices are again breaking records, up 23% and 11%, respectively. This is due in part to 52% of the current listings being considered Luxury (priced at over $5 million); a 37% increase when compared to Q2 2022.
Current available inventory breaks down as follows: five homes between $1 and $2 million (down 37%); 16 homes between $2 and $3 million (up 23%); 26 homes between $3 and $5 million (no change); 25 between $5 and $10 million (no change); and 21 over $10 million (up 91%).
Currently, the least expensive single-family home, located South of Jackson, is listed for $1.13 million. The .8-acre parcel features a 1,048 sq. ft., two-bedroom, one-bath home built in 2000.
The most expensive home, located north of Wilson, is listed for $40 million. The main home, built in 1996, has 9,696 sq. ft. with four bedrooms and seven baths. The log home sits on 4.53 acres with Lake Creek running through it, and has a geothermal heating and cooling system.
• Currently, there are 6,087 free-market, single-family homes (not deed-restricted or timeshare) in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (1,757); Town of Jackson (1,418); North of the Gros Ventre River (711); and South of the Gros Ventre River to the County Line (2,201).
• There are 1,639 luxury, single-family homes worth at least $5 million throughout the valley. Exactly half of these homes are located on the Westbank.
• There are 178 homes in the valley situated on 35+ acres.
MID-YEAR 2023
Condo/townhome sales decreased in the first six months of 2023 with 49 sales (down 26%). In contrast, the average and median sale prices increased 2% and 7%, respectively, when compared to 2022. NOTE: The average and median sale prices are both record-breaking for mid-year sales.
The number of sales under $1 million is up 27% (14), whereas the number of sales over $3 million is down 18% (14). The hot spot was the Town of Jackson with 31 sales, or 63% of the sales valley-wide.
The number of condos/townhomes under contract has decreased 52% with 10 properties currently in negotiations. Following suit, the average and median list prices were down 36% and 55%, respectively, and the dollar volume decreased 69%. The decrease in the average and median list prices reflects an increase in listings under contract for less than $1 million (up 300%).
Available inventory of condos/townhomes has seen a generous increase of 44% (56 listings). NOTE: In 2009 the market peaked with 214 available listings, and from 2015 to 2020 the average number of listings mid-year was 75. In contrast, the average and median list prices were down 18% and 30%, respectively. Based on mid-year results, current inventory offers only seven months of condo/townhome stock. NOTE: Of the current available inventory, 36% is listed for less than $1 million, with the least expensive at $650,000—a 624 sq. ft. one bedroom in the Town of Jackson.
• Currently, there are 3,270 free-market condos/townhomes (not deed-restricted or timeshare) in Jackson Hole. They break down as follows: Westbank (1,147, with 683 in Teton Village); Town of Jackson (1,745); North of the Gros Ventre River (92); and South of the Gros Ventre River to the County Line (283).
• There are 157 luxury condos/townhomes worth at least $5 million throughout the valley. All are within Teton Village, except for fifteen in the Town of Jackson.
MID-YEAR 2023
Single-family vacant lot sales decreased in the first six months of 2023 with 21 sales (down 30%). Following suit, the dollar volume was down 17% when compared to mid-year 2022. In contrast, the average and median sale prices were up 68% and 39%, respectively—both record breaking. NOTE: The Luxury Market ($5+ million) had five sales over $5 million (down 17%), and three over $10 million.
Single-family vacant lots under contract: Seven properties are currently in negotiations (down 36%), with the least expensive being $650,000. One is listed for over $5 million.
Available inventory of listed lots increased by 67%, and dollar volume was up 49% from Q2 2022. Following suit, the median list price increased 19% ($3.35 million – record breaking) when compared to 2022. The increase in the median list price reflects the lack of inventory under $1 million (only 4). NOTE: Demand is slowing, so we do not expect appreciation to continue in 2023. Based on mid-year results, there are currently 19 months of available inventory.
Current available inventory breaks down as follows: Four lots under $1 million; 11 lots between $1 and $2 million; 12 lots between $2 and $3 million; 14 lots between $3 and $5 million; 13 lots between $5 and $10 million; and nine lots over $10 million.
• Q2 2023 registered the third lowest number of available single-family lots in 36 years.
• Currently, there are 1,103 platted and vacant residential single-family lots under 35 acres in Jackson Hole. Of those, only 379 (34%) are located on the Westbank.
• Currently, there are 246 platted and vacant residential single-family lots over 35 acres in Jackson Hole that are not under any type of a conservation easement.
The Jackson Hole Report is published semi-annually, with additional email updates for the first and third quarters.
*While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call Devon, Luke, or David today. “We are the Experts”.
*All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.
*All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2023 compared to sales in 2022.
*Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale.
*Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.
*In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), not including Alta, WY.
*The term “Market Value” means; the value of a property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.
© Copyright 1995 – 2023 by David Viehman and Devon Viehman, dba Engel & Volkers Jackson Hole. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David Viehman.
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